The Transition Lifecycle of Lithium Batteries: A Holistic View

The lifecycle of lithium batteries is not a simple "rise-peak-decline" but an evolution of "Mainstream Dominance → Technological 

Diversification → Pluralistic Coexistence."

1. Period of Mainstream Dominance (Present - 2030)

Core Driver: The definitive global trend of energy transition and transportation electrification.

Defensive Moats:

Mature Industrial Chain: A global, scaled, and continuously cost-reducing closed-loop ecosystem exists, from mining and materials to 

manufacturing and recycling.

Significant Performance Inertia: It offers the best current balance between energy density, cycle life, and power characteristics, meeting 

the mainstream needs of EVs and consumer electronics.

Continuous Technological Evolution: Potential is constantly being unlocked through material innovations (high-nickel, silicon-carbon anodes, 

LMFP) and structural innovations (CTP, CTC), extending its technological lifespan.

Market Share Estimate: Absolute dominance (>80%). The primary or sole choice for nearly all electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and 

portable energy storage.

2. Reasons for Transition & Competing Technologies (2030 - 2040)

Incumbent lithium-ion batteries will face competition from both higher-end and lower-end technologies, leading to a fragmentation of their 

market share.

High-End Disruption (Upward Pressure): Solid-State Batteries

Reason: Addresses the inherent limitations of liquid electrolytes—safety (non-flammable solid electrolyte) and the energy density ceiling 

(potential compatibility with lithium metal anodes).

Impact: Will initially penetrate high-end electric vehicles, aviation, and military applications, capturing the most profitable market segments.

Low-End Disruption (Downward Pressure): Sodium-Ion Batteries

Reason: Addresses the resource constraints (lithium, cobalt, nickel) and cost issues of lithium batteries. Advantages include abundant raw 

materials, lower cost, enhanced safety, and superior fast-charging capability.

Impact: Will massively replace lithium batteries in applications less sensitive to energy density, such as low-speed EVs, electric two-wheelers, 

base station backup, and large-scale energy storage.

Market Share Trend: Enters a Period of Competition and Coexistence. The share of liquid lithium-ion batteries will begin to erode but will 

remain strong in the mid-range market due to cost advantages. A tripartite landscape (liquid lithium / solid-state lithium / sodium-ion) begins 

to form.

3. Future Market Share in a Pluralistic World (Post-2040)

The future energy storage market will be a pluralistic and scenario-specific portfolio of solutions, with no single technology dominating all 

applications.

Solid-State Lithium Batteries: Estimated to capture 20%-30% of the high-end market.

Evolutionized Liquid Lithium-Ion Batteries: Will securely hold 30%-40% of the mid-range and economy segments due to optimized cost 

advantages.

Sodium-Ion Batteries: Expected to hold a stable 20%-30% share in large-scale storage and low-cost applications.

Other Technologies (Li-S, Fuel Cells, etc.): Will occupy niche segments (~10%), such as ultra-long-endurance applications, aviation, and 

heavy-duty freight.

4. A Strikingly Similar Lifecycle Analogy: The Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)

The trajectory of lithium batteries is strikingly similar to the lifecycle of the Internal Combustion Engine.

Dimension Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Lithium Battery Analysis

Mainstream Period Dominated for over a century, optimized via incremental tech (fuel injection, turbocharging). Dominant since 

commercialization (1991), continuously improved via materials and structural innovation. Both extended their golden age through 

continuous incremental innovation, building deep industrial and technological moats.

Transition Period Faced disruptive substitution from Electric Vehicles (battery + motor). Faces disruption from both ends (solid-state from 

above, sodium-ion from below). Disruptors don't emerge overnight; they start in niche markets (e.g., hybrids, low-speed vehicles) before 

challenging the mainstream.

Coexistence Period Even in the EV era, ICEs will persist long-term in heavy-duty trucks, shipping, hybrids, and aviation. Even after market 

fragmentation, it will remain in cost-sensitive markets and existing infrastructure for a long time. Once a technology becomes global 

infrastructure, its phase-out is exceptionally prolonged, as it finds its most suitable "ecological niche" to endure.

Core Driver The maturity and convenience of the oil energy system. The construction of the "Silicon-Based Energy" (PV/Wind) + Electrification 

system. Both are the conversion devices for their era's core energy carrier, and their fate is deeply tied to that energy system.

Conclusion:

Lithium batteries are on a path analogous to that of the internal combustion engine: They evolved from a revolutionary technology into a 

platform technology supporting an entire era, resisting replacement through self-improvement, and ultimately transforming into a key—but not 

sole—component within a new technological landscape. Their transition lifecycle will be much longer than many anticipate, and their "legacy" 

will persist for decades within the future pluralistic energy ecosystem.